2022 moto predictions scorecard

Anyway, let's start with Spurgeon Dunbar, who made it easy on himself by predicting he'd buy a new adventure motorcycle in 2022. Unlike the rest of us, Spurgeon didn't have to rely on any outside forces to make his prediction come true. He just had to locate an appropriate bike in a tight used-motorcycle marketplace and be willing to pay the high prices sellers were demanding. In the end, he bought a lightly used KTM 890 Adventure R Rally, exactly the capable adventure bike he was dreaming of. This is the one prediction that isn't debatable. It came true.

Spurgeon's long-shot prediction didn't fare as well. He predicted a 10% growth in sales of new motorcycles in the U.S. market in 2022, and that didn't happen. We don't have full-year figures yet, but the trend suggests total 2022 sales will be roughly 5% lower than 2021, not 10% higher.

Ari Henning predicted that an increasingly urban U.S. population would discover what the rest of the world already knows, that small motorcycles make a good transportation option. However, U.S. sales of small-displacement motorcycles actually declined slightly this year, pretty much in line with the overall market. In hindsight, Ari agreed with my view that electric bicycles have stolen that urban transportation segment, because of lower cost, greater flexibility, and a lack of licensing and registration requirements.

Ari stretched even further with his long-shot prediction, saying we'd see hovercrafts, meaning "single- or two-passenger flying vehicles," being used to avoid urban gridlock. My view is we will never see hovercraft used in any urban setting by non-professional pilots because people can't even avoid hitting stuff while driving a car in two dimensions, so how are they not going to crash into apartment buildings and power lines while flying above city streets? In hindsight, again, Ari admitted he may have gotten too far ahead and added that his long-shot prediction was "my attempt at being creative and loosening my grip on the pragmatism that directs my every thought." So he gets style points, but not credit for a correct prediction.

While the rest of us try to predict trends or developments, Zack Courts tends to look at the hardware and predict new models we'll see. A year ago, he predicted Triumph would repurpose the 900 cc engine from the Speed Twin in a retro-styled adventure-touring bike. Good idea. Not such a good prediction. Didn't happen.

For his long-shot prediction, Zack said, "We will see a hybrid-electric motorcycle from a major brand in 2022 or, so help me baby Jebus, I'll go back to ranting about turbo bikes." So was Zack right or should he resume monopolizing Highside/Lowside podcast time with sermons about the joys of forced induction? It sort of depends on how you parse his words. If you take "we" to mean the U.S. market (a couple of hybrid scooters by major manufacturers Honda and Piaggio already exist in other markets), it didn't happen in 2022. But Zack's prediction does appear to be coming true, just not on schedule. Kawasaki showed a hybrid prototype at the Coca-Cola 8 Hours endurance race and at the EICMA show and said the hybrid will be in production as a 2024 model.

Patrick Garvin predicted that more cruiser riders would venture into off-road riding this year as part of a trend that saw homebuilt "hooligan" bikes included in off-road events like the Bilt 100 and the introduction of the Harley-Davidson Pan America, giving would-be adventure riders a U.S.-built option. Was he right? It's hard to say for sure, because it's not like the federal Department of Transportation keeps stats on people home-building dual-Sportsters. Also, Patrick may be projecting a little, because he's both a V-twin expert and a serious off-road enthusiast. But he can point to some significant anecdotal evidence, as well as strong sales of the Pan America — surely many of those Pan America buyers are faithful Harley-Davidson customers — to support his case, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Patrick's other prediction is more clear-cut. For his long-shot prediction, he said a KTM rider would win both the Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by Kicker and the Mission Production Twins presented by Vance & Hines classes in American Flat Track in 2022. Kody Kopp won the Singles title on a Red Bull KTM but Jesse Janisch won the last year of the Production Twins class on a Vance & Hines Harley-Davidson. James Rispoli won two Production Twins races on a KTM but no KTM rider finished in the top 10 in the standings. So no go on the long-shot prediction, Patrick.

For his regular prediction, Andy Greaser dusted off one of Spurgeon's predictions from the year before and said that surely Harley-Davidson wouldn't just throw away all that work it did on the Bronx prototype and we'd see some sort of sporty bike with the Revolution Max engine, whether it was called the Bronx, a Sportster, or whatever. Instead, in 2022 we got the Nightster, following up the 2021 Sportster S. I gave Andy the chance to argue that the Nightster went far enough in a sporty direction to count his prediction as a partial win, but give the kid credit for honesty. "No," he said. "The Nightster doesn't count." And there you have it.

Andy's long-shot prediction was that Yamaha would bring its mid-sized, sport-touring Tracer 700 to the U.S. market. Should they? Lots of people think so. Did they? No. Sorry, Andy (and everyone stateside who wants a Tracer 700).

And now, to cast a critical eye at my own predictions. My regular prediction took the other side of Spurgeon's argument and forecast "a single-digit percentage decline in 2022 and a sharper decline in the already tiny scooter market." Early numbers look like I was right about the overall U.S. motorcycle market but not about scooters. I thought scooter sales would be severely hit by the popularity of electric bicycles that I mentioned above. But scooter sales appear to be declining at about the same rate as overall U.S. motorcycle sales, so I didn't get that 100% right.

For my long-shot prediction, I tried to pick the 2022 champions in four major racing series and guess the number of podiums the three U.S. riders in Moto2 would record. Picking any one winner doesn't qualify as a long-shot prediction, but getting them all correct would have been a long shot, and unsurprisingly I came up short. I correctly predicted that Eli Tomac would win Monster Energy Supercross, Pecco Bagnaia would take the MotoGP title, and Jake Gagne would repeat as MotoAmerica Medallia Superbike champion (though it was looking bad when Bagnaia was 91 points behind and Gagne was trailing by 59 points). I whiffed by picking Toprak Razgatlioğlu to repeat as World Superbike champion, underestimating just how triumphant Álvaro Bautista's return to Ducati would be. I predicted three U.S. Moto2 podiums and the season ended with two, both by Joe Roberts, one of them his first win in the class. I was sure we'd see another podium when Cameron Beaubier qualified on pole at the Circuit of the Americas, but it wasn't to be.

As usual, our predictions for 2022 were a mixed bag of partial successes and total failures. We're already on record with our predictions for 2023, so I'll be back here a year from now to see if we're getting any better at this.