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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future," baseball philospher Yogi Berra reputedly said. But every year, we give it our best shot, anyway.
As always, we asked the Common Tread regulars to make two predictions about the motorcycle world in 2023. To encourage people not to play it safe, the second one is a long-shot prediction, meaning there's less shame in getting it wrong. Here's what they said.
Andy Greaser: KTM buys MV Agusta and a major manufacturer offers leases
Nothing seems to make KTM parent company Pierer Mobility happier than gobbling up small, premium Euro brands down on their luck. MV Agusta is the latest object of Pierer's desire, and I think it'll be the next marque assimilated into the Big Orange Borg Collective. An agreement back in September gave KTM distribution rights for MV Agusta products in the United States and a month after that Pierer scooped up a 25.1% stake in MV. Acquiring the rest of MV Agusta would give KTM more options for customers in the premium, sport, and possibly heritage categories while also opening up some possibilities in MotoGP, electric bicycles, and more. I'm not sure that this is the smartest play for Pierer, but I bet it'll happen in the next year.
Did you know that you can lease a new motorcycle right now through a third party or some individual dealerships? While leasing a motorcycle isn't very popular right now, my long-shot prediction is that a major manufacturer, probably European, will start offering a direct leasing option for new motorcycles. Think about it: Motorcycling is getting more expensive every year, but that doesn't seem to bother premium customers with enough income to buy the latest and greatest. These riders will probably want to upgrade when a new model comes out with more power, improved tech, and so on. Dealers in the automotive industry have fully embraced leasing as a way to fatten margins while keeping customers supplied with the newest models, especially when it comes to premium brands, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this carry over into moto. And ex-lease bikes could fuel the hot pre-owned sales we're seeing at the moment.
Patrick Garvin: Baggers rule and KTM wins in AFT SuperTwins
I might be a bit late to the game with this as a "prediction," but I see bagger racing and performance baggers becoming even more mainstream, if you will. I think we will see a bigger factory effort from Indian motorcycles, meaning more money in their program. No more one-bike team run from a Sprinter van with an occasional second rider. I think we will see a full factory rig from Indian at MotoAmerica races with at least a two-rider team. And I think we'll see both the manufacturers and the aftermarket capitalize on the trend with more performance parts. We've already seen a trickle down of parts to Harley-Davidson's Screamin' Eagle line with things like Öhlins suspension collaborations that are available for your street-going Road Glides and Street Glides. I expect Indian to follow suit with a line of their own Challenger performance parts. The aftermarket is already churning out bagger-specific performance parts and I look for this to pick up in 2023. Who knows, maybe we'll see a MotoAmerica edition factory bagger available on a showroom floor?
It looks like Indian will pulling its full factory support from American Flat Track and with the Harley-Davidson factory team already gone, that basically leaves the Estenson Yamaha team as the closest thing to a factory presence in AFT. The heavy-handed rules implemented in 2022 to slow down the dominant Indian FTR750s opened up the possibility of other brands appearing on the Mission SuperTwins grid. Which is what happened in 2022 in the form of the Wally Brown KTM 890 piloted by James Rispoli. Not only did Rispoli win two Mission Production Twins races, but he also put the KTM on the podium of a SuperTwins race despite starting from the back of the grid. And while the KTM struggled on smaller tracks, it definitely showed potential on the mile-long racetracks. With a year of testing under their belts, my long-shot prediction is that you will see a KTM 890 win a SuperTwins mile race during the 2023 AFT season.
Jen Dunstan: The start of the Ducati Dynasty in MotoGP and a decline in dirt sales
Allow me to start with the most obvious and easy prediction to make — the Ducati Dynasty has officially hit its stride in MotoGP. After bagging the 2022 MotoGP championship with Pecco Bagnaia, and packing the grid with a healthy number of Ducati teams and equally hungry riders, the Italian factory is poised for many more successes in the years to come. Long-lasting dynasties in MotoGP used to be centered around an all-star rider, like the unbeatable Rossi days, the runaway races of Lorenzo, and most recently the dominance of Márquez. But something important has shifted in the paddock, a leveling out of the rider talent as we watch every weekend a full crop of contenders jockey for the top spot. The real separator now seems to be in the machines, and Ducati continues to pull ahead of its competition in top speed and sheer numbers with so many bikes on the grid. You will be seeing a lot of red on that MotoGP podium, mark my words!
As for a long-shot prediction for 2023, I predict a decline in all off-road segments, even the elephant that is SxS sales. First, both dirt-bike and dual-sport sales have seen a decline already this year in the second half of 2022. I hate to admit it, but I do feel that as the world continues to right-size itself from the COVID times, it will mean fewer people care to get lost in the solitude of the wilderness and will return to more traditional vacations and recreation. As inflation continues to impact people's budgets and interest rates make loans more costly, really expensive dirt toys like side-by-sides will be out of reach for a lot of regular consumers. On the plus side, this means for us “lifers” that we will hopefully see a much needed price correction on the used market, and much more inventory. Save up those pennies, some good deals might be hitting the private sale postings real soon.
Spurgeon Dunbar: Slower sales overall, but dirt bikes still strong
For the past two years, demand for motorcycles has outpaced the supply. I spent 2021 trying to buy a new KTM 890 Adventure R for myself and a Kawasaki KLX230L for my fiancée, Nicole. (Who would have predicted I would close out 2022 with a fiancée?) While I ended up buying both of those bikes in 2022, I bought them both used, and paid a premium, to boot. Now, supply has caught up and demand has begun to wane. As Jen noted, people have returned to their regularly scheduled pre-pandemic way of life (taking family vacations, eating out at restaurants, drinking at bars, etc.). Add in rising inflation and global economic concerns, and I think people are thinking a bit harder before just running out and dropping cash on a new motorcycle. That's why I am predicting a slow year for U.S. motorcycle sales in general, with a decrease of at least 8% in 2023 over 2022.
My long-shot prediction takes the opposite side of Jen's argument, however. Recently, we've seen a spike in used sales, especially in dirt bikes, and in a meeting the other day it was suggested that this hints that riders are abandoning off-road riding at a higher rate than other segments. However, I disagree. I think it means something else. Unlike other segments of the motorcycle market, dirt bike owners often use their vehicles in competition and therefore are upgrading their machines to the newest version more often than typical street riders. However, those new bikes have been hard to come by, which is why sales in the off-road segment are down by roughly 6% in third-quarter reporting. With supply coming back, I think a lot of riders are preparing to buy new in 2023. My long-shot prediction is that off-highway dirt bike sales spike roughly 9% in 2023.
Spenser Robert: Cheaper used bikes and Royal Enfield doubles again
Call it a hunch, call it wishful thinking, but my Craigslist crystal ball is telling me that 2023 will see the return of cheap used motorcycles. Based on purely anecdotal evidence (I can see the Port of Los Angeles from my front door) it appears that supply-chain issues have improved just as demand has started to diminish. So while I don't want there to be a recession, I also don't want to pay $8,000 for your ran-when-parked project bike. Mark the words of this chronic prognosticator: 2023 is the year of the two-wheel deal!
On the loftier side of my predictions, and in direct conflict with the economic headwinds I mentioned above, I'll go out on a limb for my long-shot prediction and say Royal Enfield will double their sales in the United States in 2023. Again. In 2021 they claimed to have sold 3,820 motorcycles. In 2022 it was 7,305. So if my completely reliable and not just made-up-for-this-assignment prediction is true, that means they'll move a whopping 14,610 units in FY2023. Impressive. The folks in Chennai are building attractive bikes at attractive prices and perhaps it's precisely because of those economic headwinds that this next year they will be more appealing than ever.
Zack Courts: The rise of middleweights and KTM buys Zero
How many times has a rider 20 or 30 years my senior said something about how engines are too big these days? "Mid-size?! Why, back in my day a 650 was the baddest bike on the block!" Well 'round about this time two years ago, Ari predicted that there would be a continued swell in “sensible, small- to medium-displacement machines” and I think it'll be more than that. Suzuki announced two new bikes sharing a new engine, plus Honda is bringing back the Transalp name and expanding its CB500 platform. With emissions regulations constantly clamping down and people's growing weariness for massive bikes, this new crop, along with Aprilia 660s, KTM 890s, Triumph 900s, and Yamaha 700s, will become the flagships of our world. For you, maybe they already are.
Watching the moves KTM has been making, my long-shot prediction is that KTM will buy Zero Motorcycles. Having a foothold in the electric market would be good for KTM, and the company has already proven that it wants to pool multiple brands under the orange banner. This will be good for Zero, too — KTM has set up shop around the world, meaning Zero's reach will increase drastically. Plus, sourcing suspension and braking componentry will become cheaper for Zero's manufacturing, which will bring down consumer prices. On top of it all, Zero and KTM have both shown that they are willing to forge ahead into the digital future by charging consumers for software unlocks or simply to keep features the bike already offers. It's a match made in two-wheel heaven and it will be good for both companies, and the motorcycling public.
Lance Oliver: A Chinese Harley-Davidson and MotoGP stress fractures
A year ago, I probably would have taken the other side of this prediction, but I now believe we will see a Chinese-built, Harley-Davidson-badged motorcycle or two unveiled in 2023. Back in 2019, we reported on Harley-Davidson's plans to build small motorcycles for the huge Asian markets with a Chinese partner, but that was under the leadership of former CEO Matt Levatich, who was trying to expand global sales. When Levatich was replaced as CEO by board member Jochen Zeitz, the focus shifted to selling fewer motorcycles at higher prices and increasing Harley-Davidson's image as "the most desirable motorcycle in the world," a phrase Zeitz uses over and over. So despite Zeitz periodically mentioning, without elaboration, that the joint venture was still alive, I had serious doubts. Until recently. It seems the joint venture has been formalized under a new name, Zhejiang Jisheng Motor Vehicle Co., Ltd., and has now obtained the needed permits to begin production. I expect in 2023 we'll see some variation of motorcycles already being built by Qianjiang, Ltd. with Harley-Davidson badging. I predict we won't see them in U.S. Harley dealerships, however, as there's no way Harley-Davidson's U.S. customers will ever believe "made in China" and "most desirable" belong in the same sentence.
With the announcement that the 2023 MotoGP season will consist of 21 rounds, with a Saturday sprint race at every round, that means MotoGP riders will be lining up on a race grid 42 times in 2023. My long-shot prediction is that something is going to crack. Maybe it will be that the championship is decided by injury instead of racing, because riders in sprint races will be more aggressive and anyone who does crash and is hurt will lose more points during recovery. Or maybe we'll see races disrupted because the huge amounts of equipment can't get across oceans fast enough. We saw logistics problems in 2022 even with races two weeks apart, and next year we'll see more back-to-back races on different continents. Or maybe we'll see the beginning of the formation of a riders' union. Such a development goes against the nature of racers, who are all about competition, not cooperation, with each other. But as they get pushed to take more risk for the same compensation, and as stressed teams, facing long months far from home, become more apt to make mistakes, something is likely to break, in my opinion.
Those are our predictions for 2023. After the new year, we'll take a look back at our predictions for 2022 and see how we did.
