2022 moto predictions

Better not to consider it too deeply and just plunge ahead with our annual tradition of predicting what will happen in the motorcycle world in the coming year. We asked for one regular prediction and one long-shot prediction for 2022 and here's what our panel of esteemed experts had to say.

Spurgeon Dunbar: A new bike for me and 10 percent growth

I feel like the world doesn't lend itself to making predictions right now. Almost like doing so is just tempting the universe to pull a 180 and smack you upside the head for even considering you might have an idea of what to expect the world to look like 12 months from now. That being said, the one prediction that I can almost guarantee will come true is that I will buy a new ADV bike in 2022.

As I previously discussed in our Best and Worst Trends article, 2021 marked the departure of my beloved KTM 1090 Adventure R. The plan was to add an 890 Adventure R to the stable, but as it turns out, demand for motorcycles this past year far outpaced the supply. But, I've currently got a line on a used demo model and a couple of new units, as well, so things are looking up as we prepare to usher in a fresh start.

For my long-shot prediction, I think we're going to see U.S. motorcycle sales grow 10 percent over the next 12 months as the economy begins to normalize. I think Honda is going to sell a ton of Navis and Trail 125s and Kawasaki will continue to sell out of KLX230s (another bike I was unable to buy in 2021). As of September, U.S. motorcycle sales were up 9.5 percent year over year, according to data provided by the Motorcycle Industry Council. My prediction is that as supply chains begin to stabilize and OEMs can increase the number of motorcycles coming into the United States, demand will push sales beyond what we saw in 2021.

Zack Courts: A smaller Triumph scrambler and a U.S.-built hybrid

This time last year I thought for sure I had a shoo-in prediction for Kawasaki to update the Versys-X 300 with the Ninja 400 powerplant. No dice. My confidence is shaken and I don't see anything nearly as obvious on the horizon. That said, the combination of two bikes I rode this year got me thinking — the Moto Guzzi V85 TT and Triumph’s Speed Twin. Stepping off Guzzi's interpretation of a classically styled adventure-touring rig and directly onto Triumph's vintagey streetfighter, I was struck by the notion that the Speed Twin has exactly what the V85 needs: an engine that looks old but feels new.

Triumph is overdue to make a medium-sized ADV with round headlights. Yes, the Brits make a slew of three-cylinder adventure bikes, plus two old-school scramblers (the larger of which is pretty good off-road, as we found out). But, what if Triumph used the smaller of its parallel-twin engine and built around it a handsome and upright chassis with wind protection, with a styling blend of Ducati Desert X and Royal Enfield Himalayan? I think people would be willing to pay approximately $11,000 for that motorcycle, I think Triumph already knows it and I think we'll see it.

I love a long-shot prediction, too, and this year it's hybrid motorcycles. We will see a hybrid-electric motorcycle from a major brand in 2022 or, so help me baby Jebus, I'll go back to ranting about turbo bikes. Like turbos, the automotive industry is overflowing with hybrid options, and the technology is more prevalent and understood than ever. An obvious choice would be a Japanese brand, since Kawasaki has teased the idea and Honda is on its way with a hybrid scooter, but how’s this for a curveball — American-made Zero motorcycles will be the first to make it happen. A tiny, gas-powered generator will be added to a sport-touring model to increase the range of the electric motor, a la BMW i3 or Chevy Volt. And it'll be excellent.

Ari Henning: Small bikes and hoverbikes both take off

Nearly everywhere else in the world, small bikes rule. Their cost, efficiency, and the fact that you can stuff so many of them onto a city street means that sub-250 cc machines are the dominant form of transportation for millions of people. Here in the U.S. of A., however, we like our big, fast, expensive bikes. Our nation's thousands-of-miles-long highways spawned the Harley-Davidson Electra Glide and Honda Gold Wing, but that doesn't mean our two-wheeled history is devoid of small, practical bikes. We've had them in the past (think Honda CB160 and the long-lived Trail series), and my prediction is that we're going to see a lot more of them in the future, led by the new and affordable Honda Navi.

According to the 2010 census (2020 data isn't yet available), 80.7 percent of the U.S. population now lives in urban areas. That means more people crammed into apartments and condos, with fewer private garages and more competition for road and parking space. With factors like that coming to the fore, vehicles like the Navi, with its 109 cc engine and $1,800 MSRP, start to look less like a plaything and more like smart transportation. There are myriad Asian companies producing wee bikes for their domestic markets and I predict it's just a matter of time before they start shipping them over here.

On the heels of that somewhat dystopian scenario, another prediction plucked from Blade Runner: hoverbikes. We saw a news blip about a production hoverbike earlier this year, and with ground-level congestion reaching intolerable levels, my long-shot prediction is that the rich will take to the sky. They already are, based on the number of helicopters I see flying over my house in L.A., but I’m talking about single- or two-passenger flying vehicles capable of vertical take offs and landings.

Andy Greaser: Something like a Bronx and a Tracer 700

Since Spurgeon predicted this last year, maybe I should make this my long-shot prediction. Maybe not. Having finally debuted a new Sportster platform, and with reports of strong sales of the Pan America, it's time for Harley-Davidson to put their new Revolution Max engine in something with 17-inch wheels and a decent chassis. The previous leadership promised to build a bike like that and showed the Bronx prototype. There seemed to be plenty of support for the idea in comments sections around the internet, but the idea was shelved. Whether it's called the Bronx or labeled a new Sportster model, I don't think there will be any shortage of enthusiasm, as long as it has that Rev Max and an MSRP under the overpriced Sportster S.

The world of motorcycling can be difficult to predict. Example: Moto Guzzi was first to introduce active aero on a production motorcycle in the last year. I didn't see that on anyone's list in last year's article. There are, however, a few things that remain constant, and one of them is that Europeans will always get a few neat models that we don't get here in the U.S. of A. Yamaha's Tracer 700 (see the photo at the top) is a prime example of a model that might sell well here, except that it isn't imported for some reason or another. I think it's one of the best newer Yamahas in terms of styling, too, and it would be an easy way for Yamaha to add a "new" model to the U.S. lineup in a hot genre. My long-shot prediction is Yamaha will finally give us the Tracer 700.

Patrick Garvin: Dirty Harleys and victorious KTM flat-trackers

In 2022, I think we're going to see more of the V-twin cruiser crowd migrate over to the dirt side. The Pan America seemingly kicked the door down for the Harley faithful to finally dip their toes in dirty water. It's not that I think riders will abandon their Dynas and Street Glides, but we'll see them adding a two-wheeled dirt vehicle to the stable. I don't just mean Pan Americas, although I'm sure we're going to see a lot more of them. I think we'll also see more obsolete XGs and Sportsters built into DIY dirt weapons and hooligan flat-trackers riding hooligan bikes in off-road events and I'm all for it. This isn't a completely new concept. People have ridden Sportsters in the dirt before, but the trend seems to be picking up momentum. The Biltwell 100 featured a hooligan class last year and the Mint 400 has hosted hooligan bikes for a few years. My prediction is these garage-built heavy bikes will be coming to a local trail or enduro race near you.

For my long-shot prediction, I'll go out on a bit of a limb and say that KTM will win two of the three class championships in American Flat Track in 2022. I think we will see a KTM rider crowned champion in both the Singles class and the final season of the Productions Twins class. With the new format, that means we would see a KTM in the main event or two of the SuperTwins class. And who knows, with the new rules choking down the Indian FTRs, could we see a KTM creep into the top five or maybe set foot on the box in SuperTwins? I won't go that far, but I will say keep an eye out for those orange bikes in the 2022 AFT season.

Lance Oliver: Falling motorcycle sales and a list of champions

Spurgeon, always the sunny optimist, predicts 10 percent growth in U.S. sales of new motorcycles. I'm going to take the other side of that bet (this is just one reason people like Spurgeon more than me) and predict a single-digit percentage decline in 2022 and a sharper decline in the already tiny scooter market. Like it or not, motorcycles in the United States are a Baby Boomer phenomenon. Sales peaked in 1974 when the U.S. population was about two thirds what it is today, because that's when Boomers were in their 20s. We had an echo in the 2000 to 2006 range as they became empty nesters with disposable income and home equity loans flowed like beer in Aspen.

But Boomers aren't buying many more motorcycles. Facing that headwind in the top half of the market, I believe the manufacturers have already done all the right things by bringing out lots of excellent but smaller, less expensive and more accessible models to try to entice new and younger riders. But converting non-riders to riders is difficult in a national culture where motorcycles are a fringe element, and there's not much left the manufacturers can do. At the low end of the market, macro headwinds include inflation, debt levels ticking back up after a short decline and possibly higher interest rates. Industry-specific headwinds are fewer young people getting driver's licenses and new competition for urban transportation options, including electric bicycles, which don't require a training course, license, insurance and a parking spot in the city and are, rightly or wrongly, perceived as safer while motorcycles (to non-motorcyclists) are perceived as dangerous. Why buy a 50 cc scooter instead of an electric bicycle? For all those reasons, I'm taking the other side of Spurgeon's prediction.

I'll certainly get some of the following predictions right, but what would be a long shot is getting all of them right. So here are my predictions for racing champions in 2022. Despite switching to a different team and motorcycle and despite being closer now to the end of his Supercross career than the beginning, Eli Tomac wins the Monster Energy Supercross title. For the fourth year in a row, there's a different MotoGP champion, and this time it's Pecco Bagnaia. Toprak Razgatlioğlu repeats as champion in World Superbike, proving it was no fluke. And Jake Gagne (after the stunning statistics he put up in 2021, who else could you bet on?) does the same in the MotoAmerica Medallia Superbike Championship. And since I'm not picking any true underdogs in that list, I'll make sure I qualify for long-shot status by adding a bonus prediction. Number of podium appearances by U.S. riders (there will be three of them) in Moto2 in 2022: three.

See you next year when we know what really happened.