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For the third straight year, the MotoGP title was supposed to be decided at the now-customary site of the final round in Valencia, Spain. Natural disaster changed that.
Flash floods devastated the Valencia region two weeks ago, killing more than 200 people, with some still missing. The images of full-size cars being swept down city streets like they were toys showed the extreme nature of the weather event. The Circuit Ricardo Tormo itself did not suffer serious damage, but the infrastructure leading to it did. And even if it hadn't, holding a big party like a MotoGP round in the midst of the disaster zone would have been a tone-deaf insult.
After considering the options, MotoGP organizer Dorna hurriedly put together a replacement round at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, keeping the race in Spain and making the logistics slightly easier. Called the Motul Solidarity Grand Prix, some of the money raised by the race weekend has been promised to go to the flood victims in Valencia.
Organizing an event on the scale of a MotoGP weekend on such short notice is a massive task. But Dorna did not want more disruption and reduction in its schedule after already having to cancel races originally scheduled for this year in India and Kazakhstan. So on to Barcelona we go to decide the title.
Who will win the 2024 MotoGP title?
With Moto3 and Moto2 titles already decided (David Alonso wrapped up the Moto3 championship four races early and Ai Ogura clinched the Moto2 championship in Thailand, two races early), the premier class is the only open question going into Barcelona. It all comes down to Prima Pramac Racing's Jorge Martín and the factory Ducati Lenovo Team's Pecco Bagnaia. Martin has a major 24-point advantage after Bagnaia won the Petronas Grand Prix of Malaysia two weeks ago following an epic battle in the early laps between the two contenders, as seen in the clip below.
So what does Martín have to do to win his first premier-class title? The addition of sprint races on Saturday in the top class makes the calculations considerably more complicated. Fortunately, David Emmett at Motomatters has already done all the number-crunching for us, so see his thorough analysis, which lays out all the possibilities, if you want the full details. But just to give one example that shows what a strong position Martín is in, he could finish with a DNF on Saturday and a third on Sunday and still be champion, even if Bagnaia wins both races.
Other way to look at it is essentially this: To successfully defend his MotoGP title and keep the number-one plate, Bagnaia will have to take more points from Martín than he has in any other weekend of racing this year. If Martín doesn't win the title, it will be because he has his statistically worst weekend of the year. Which would certainly also make it figuratively his worst weekend of the year.
