MIC reports motorcycle sales are up but fails to mention pandemic

In recent years, MIC releases have touted a record high number of households owning motorcycles and a doubling of women riders in just a decade, though many in the industry have had a hard time corroborating that rosy picture. I'm not saying things are bad, but I do believe the state of the U.S. motorcycle industry really is more mixed than that.

The latest example is a news release issued late last week by the MIC titled "First-quarter motorcycle sales way up." It notes that sales of new motorcycles in the first quarter of 2021 were 37.2 percent higher than the first quarter of 2020. I'm sure the five-paragraph release will be repeated fairly widely and give the impression that good times are upon us.

But wait, didn't something happen in the first quarter of 2020? Anyone remember March of last year? Could that skew year-over-year comparisons?

By all accounts, both MIC stats and reports directly from the major motorcycle manufacturers, January and February of 2020 were good months, showing increased sales over 2019. Everyone was pretty optimistic and COVID was just a typo of the scientific name for crows. But then March hit, we learned what COVID-19 really meant, businesses started shutting down and sales dropped, temporarily.

Looking at MIC's first-quarter 2020 stats, the entire sales advantage gained in January and February was lost in March, and then some. Overall, Q1 of 2020 was down from Q1 of 2019, so now we're touting that Q1 of 2021 is higher?

News, questions and cheerleading

This is just the opinion of one curmudgeonly old observer of the U.S. motorcycle industry, but here's what I think is the real news and the real question.

It's already been mentioned just how strong dirt bike sales were last year, and continuing into this year, but it bears emphasis: Unit sales of off-road motorcycles were higher in every singe month of 2020 than in 2019, even March and April, when the economy lurched to a near halt, and they ended the year up 46.5 percent. That — and to a lesser extent, dual-sports — is where most of the action is, not in the motorcycle market in general. Q1 comparisons are less newsworthy just because Q1 included the most globally tumultuous month in my lifetime — and as Spurg loves to point out, that's a long time.

The important question is whether these amazing swings in motorcycle sales show a true change in trend. Since the Great Recession in 2008, U.S. new motorcycle sales have been stagnant. Maybe all those dirt bike sales last year represent young people getting hooked on two wheels and we'll see a change of trend. Or maybe the long-term secular trends will resume in the post-pandemic economy and sales will continue to be flat to declining. That's the really important question and we won't know the answer for a while.

One reason we won't know for sure any time soon is because there are still so many ripples from the pandemic that are creating unusual situations. Sales of new motorcycles may continue to be affected by external factors ranging from chip shortages to supply chain disruptions to shipping delays, and the currently heated market for used motorcycles is also related to all that.

Look, I know part of the MIC's job is to promote the industry, but the "skies are always sunny" approach can be taken too far. Such as year-over-year comparisons that don't mention that last year was like no other in our lifetimes. It's kind of like the high school cheerleaders shaking their pom-poms and cheering "Nobody messes with the Bulldogs!" while the scoreboard behind them shows the basketball Bulldogs down 20 points going into the fourth quarter.

While we wait to see if true good news develops in the long-term industry trends, maybe a touch less cheerleading?