Two championships to be decided this weekend after unpredictable seasons

Read on as motocross expert Brett Smith of wewentfast.com brings us up to date on the SMX Playoffs, or you can skip below to see Lance Oliver's preview of this weekend's deciding tripleheader Superbike round.

SMX Playoffs: Late-season momentum puts Prado in control

This is so far from the original script we can't remember how it was supposed to go. That's the point of the three-round SuperMotocross World Championships; by design, we’re not supposed to know.

With its escalating points payout system and unique scoring format, predicting the SMX post-season champion is already difficult. But then number-one seed Hunter Lawrence doesn't get on the podium in three of the first four motos? That guy typically lives on the podium. Jorge Prado takes the points lead after Playoff 1 after finishing… third!? Then he wins Playoff 2 without winning a moto (second in both motos).

Defending champion Jett Lawerence isn't competing at all (surgery on an old foot injury), Haiden Deegan made an enemy of a teammate, and this year's Supercross champion, Ken Roczen, came off the couch after missing the outdoor Pro Motocross season and can still run the pace. And Eli Tomac is retiring. It's not hard to figure out why this Saturday's Finals at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena in Ridgedale, Missouri is a sellout.

General admission tickets are available on the resale market for $330 each.

So how did we get here?

Playoff 1 in Columbus, Ohio was a quagmire of a mudder, won by 450-class rookie Deegan; Roczen and Prado were second and third. It was hard to glean much knowledge from a survival situation but number-one seed Hunter Lawrence made his title chances difficult with a disastrous 15th overall finish.

Playoff 2, last weekend in Carson, California, caused whiplash and the scorekeepers are still battling mathematical migraines. With just 3:30 left in the second moto, a four-rider tie for the overall race win looked likely between Lawrence, Deegan, Prado, and Roczen.

But a lot can change in 44 seconds. In that span, Cooper Webb passed Roczen for fourth, then Deegan (running second) fell while holding off the Spaniard, Prado. Deegan remounted quickly but a lapped rider knocked his left hand off the grip. While attempting to take off, he collided with Roczen (who had repassed Webb).

Webb went wide to go around both riders. Deegan was able to get up to speed and float over the finish line side by side with Webb, his veteran teammate at Monster Energy Star Racing Yamaha. He didn't check up in the next corner; instead, he dove to the inside of Webb for a textbook block pass that left the three-time Supercross champ on the ground.

Webb was so furious he struggled with syntax in a post-race television interview. "I'm all for aggressive racing but I think the lack of respect with the kid is the common problem. He has no respect for anyone else," Webb said of Deegan. "I got one more race with this team and I'll make hell sure he don't win this thing, that's for sure."

Deegan also stopped and spoke with television and admitted his transgression. "I panicked and rode Coop a little dirty," he said. "I don’t want to do that to a teammate but I wanted every position I could get because it's three rounds, you gotta do what you gotta do. No hard feelings there, sorry about that."

NBC had a camera waiting outside the Yamaha truck and showed a shirtless (and bootless), Deegan go inside. When Webb arrived, he parked his YZ450F and motioned with his hands for someone off screen to follow him. He marched into the truck while crew and personnel scrambled to get inside behind him and close the door. Voices far from the action yelled "they're fighting" and "there's a fight going on," but nobody outside the truck saw what happened.

It's (almost) the only thing being discussed in this long seven-day wait for the final round in Missouri.

The Yamaha teammate drama completely overshadowed the fact that Hunter Lawrence won the second moto and Prado won the overall. Prado's 16-point lead means he only needs a third-place finish this weekend, no matter who wins, and he's the SMX World Champion.

Prado was never supposed to be part of the story, let alone the leading character. Just one year ago, he had such an acrimonious relationship with his team (Kawasaki) that they asked him to stay home and he didn’t race the Playoffs. For 2026, he switched to KTM, was in the mix throughout the eight-month-long regular season and finished strong in the outdoor Pro Motocross series. He set the fastest lap time in five of the last six motos and dominated the Ironman National, the final race before the Playoffs. That win bumped him to the number-two seed in the Playoffs, giving him a few more points.

"You know that confidence when you're like, 'OK, my bike is ready' and it's your time to show? I like that," he said after winning in Carson. "I like that when everything is good and it's on me."

So it comes down to this. Deegan, Lawrence, Roczen, and Webb must win and they need Prado to finish fourth or worse. Prado just needs to finish on the podium overall and he has done that in the last five events going back to the Unadilla Pro Motocross. He has 11 podium finishes total in the 30 rounds run so far.

A clear favorite in Superbike, but not the expected favorite

The MotoAmerica Quad Lock Superbike series has been a conventional wisdom demolition machine this year. Whatever the consensus expectation has been, it's been proven wrong.

Now, we'll see if that pattern continues into the final weekend with a decisive three-race weekend at New Jersey Motorsports Park or if what appears obvious will finally happen.

Just look at how many times this season the conventional wisdom has been wrong.

Before the season started, conventional wisdom was that Cameron Beaubier, the defending champion and winningest rider in AMA Pro roadracing history, would be a massive favorite. After his 2025-title-winning team, Tytlers Cycle, pulled out, Beaubier joined the Warhorse HSBK Ducati Flo4Law team to ride the Ducati Panigale V4 R. The most successful rider in history on arguably the strongest motorcycle on the grid and backed by a proven team? Some said the championship was almost a foregone conclusion.

Instead, Beaubier struggled to get comfortable with the Panigale. A crash in qualifying at the opening round at Road Atlanta had him starting from the back of the grid. Another crash at Road America separated his shoulder, causing him to miss the middle third of the season, eliminating him from contention.

Conventional wisdom would tell you that a team like Strack Racing, coming off two very successful years winning the Supersport championship with Mathew Scholtz, would need some time to adjust after moving up to the Superbike class. After all, the Superbike's electronics are vastly more complex and the team would have no data from past years to find a starting point. But a solid team and an experienced rider would be expected to come on strong later in the year, right?

It's been the opposite. Scholtz won three of the first four races and finished second in the other, opening a huge points lead after just two rounds. The conventional wisdom became that Scholtz was a strong contender for the title. Since then, results have gone from uneven to dismal. In the last three races, Scholtz scored zero points, after being taken out by a crash that wasn't his fault in the final race at VIRginia International Raceway and suffering mechanical problems in both races at the Circuit of the Americas.

Conventional wisdom would tell you that when Beaubier came back to racing after his long layoff, he'd need some time to get up to speed. (Shoulder injuries are notorious for ruining careers.) Instead, he won his first race back in Texas.

And conventional wisdom would tell you that with all the experience in the Superbike field, the youngest rider of them all would not be the favorite. Yet here is 24-year-old Sean Dylan Kelly on the Orange Cat Racing BMW M 1000 RR going into NJMP with one hand on the trophy. He has a 26-point lead over Attack Performance Progressive Yamaha Racing's Bobby Fong, 46 points over Scholtz, and 49 points over J.D. Beach, the other Attack Performance rider, and 75 points are up for grabs in the three races at NJMP.

Frankly, betting against SDK would be reckless, considering how smart he has been riding this year, being patient and letting race wins come to him when possible and staying cool and banking solid points when a win was beyond his grasp. His lead is due not so much to his three race wins, but to his 13 podium finishes in 17 races. His only poor result was when he scored a single point in the final race at VIR when he was taken out by a multi-rider crash that wasn't his fault. Two second-place finishes and a sixth at NJMP would be enough to guarantee Kelly the title even if Fong wins every race.

BMW riders have won two AMA Superbike championships in series history, the first one and the last one: Reg Pridmore in 1976 and Beaubier in 2026.

So will the Quad Lock Superbike season finally follow the expected script and see Kelly bring BMW a second consecutive Superbike championship? Or will conventional wisdom be upended again?

How to watch

The SMX Playoffs are shown live on the Peacock streaming service.

Superbike races are shown live on Vice TV and Samsung TV Plus. A single-event pass for the MotoAmericaLive+ streaming service costs $12.99 and includes coverage of all three days of the final MotoAmerica round.