2021 moto predictions

Certainly not us. Our track records confirm that. But that's never stopped us before, so here are our predictions for the motorcycle world in 2021. We'll start with regular Common Tread contributor Mark Gardiner, who claims he was quite the prognosticator back in the day.

Mark Gardiner: Indian quits while ahead, Harley changes ownership

You might be surprised to learn that even at my advanced age, I still occasionally prognosticate. Not nearly so often as I did in my youth, of course. Back then I prognosticated every day, or even more often. So did all my friends; our whole lives were in front of us and it was hard not to cast our minds into the future. Once, I prognosticated in the back seat of a Greyhound bus.

Of late I admit my prognostications have been rather less satisfying. When Lance asked me to submit two for the coming year, he pointed out that neither of my 2020 predictions came true. Perhaps I should open with a really safe bet and say that 2021 will in general be a better year than 2020!

My first prediction is that at the end of the 2021 American Flat Track season, Indian will announce that it will no longer field a factory team. Upon the conclusion of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Harley-Davidson announced that it was shutting down its Vance & Hines-run factory team in AFT’s premier SuperTwins class. The XG750R factory race bikes (which replaced the venerable XR750 for the 2018 season) were simply not destined to run with Indian’s Swiss-designed FTR750.

Without an arch rival in Harley-Davidson, Polaris won’t see the point in bankrolling a factory team just to beat J.D. Beach and Kolby Carlile on Estenson Racing’s Yamaha MT-07s. That’s why I think that 2021 will be the last year for factory teams in AFT. I imagine that Indian will continue to sell a limited number of FTR750s to privateers and provide parts support, but that’s all it has to do to ensure that the SuperTwins podium is an Indian reserve for the foreseeable future.

Ironically, without a brand-versus-brand rivalry, SuperTwins will lose a lot of its appeal, which will be the best thing that’s ever happened to AFT’s Production Twins class.

My long shot prediction is a change of ownership at Harley-Davidson. Even before it was rocked by COVID-19, the company ousted long-time CEO Matt Levatich. Although I only met him a couple of times, I liked Levatich and I thought that his “More Roads” strategy for Harley-Davidson was a good one. The catch was that for it to work, H-D needed to embark on it about a decade sooner. As it was, well… let’s just say that when an NHL team fails to make the playoffs for five years in a row, the GM never fires the whole team; the coach has to go.

New CEO Jochen Zeitz — a member of the Board of Directors — has already begun a new strategy with layoffs and reorganization and withdrawal from international markets. But I wonder if the real plan doesn’t involve some significant change in the company’s ownership. I’m not savvy enough as an investment banker to predict how a Harley acquisition would be structured, but far bigger companies, such as H.J. Heinz and Burger King, have gone private. One interesting note about such deals is that the target companies almost all have really strong brands, as does Harley-Davidson.

Consider this: At the height of the Great Recession, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd, commonly known as Geely, acquired the Volvo car company from Ford for $1.8 billion. Could Harley-Davidson get Chinese owners? For the record, I’ll claim to be a great prognosticator if there’s any major change in Harley-Davidson’s ownership in the coming year, but my really "out there" prediction is that Geely will acquire 51 percent of HOG in 2021.

Spurgeon Dunbar: Motorcycle sales rise, Harley doesn't kill the Bronx

I don’t even know if I want to play this game this year. After 2020 turned the world upside down, it seems a fool's errand to make predictions for 2021. But then again, who’s Lance going to roast in his 2021 predictions review if I don’t take a stab at this? Here we go…

My first prediction is that motorcycle sales will continue to grow. While sales numbers prior to 2020 were on life support, social isolation requirements across most of the United States jumpstarted motorcycle sales. Talking to and visiting local dealerships, it seems like quite a few are having trouble keeping popular models in stock. As we mentioned in a recent HS/LS episode, dirt bike and dual-sport sales are definitely leading the charge, but overall, there is an uptick in sales that I’m predicting will continue throughout next year, as well.

My long shot is that Harley-Davidson will release the Bronx. For those of you who haven’t been paying attention, Harley originally planned to introduce both the Bronx, a naked sport bike, and the adventure-touring Pan America as 2021 models. While the Pan America is still slated for release in early 2021, the Bronx isn't, and some believe it will be shelved forever as part of the CEO Zeitz's refocusing efforts. I call bullshit. With naked sport bikes continuing to grow in sales and big touring and cruiser numbers in the toilet, Harley-Davidson can’t be dense enough to kill such a promising model. They can’t… Can they?

Guess we’ll have to tune in next year to see exactly how foolish this prediction ends up being.

Andy Greaser: Pan America, Norden and Ducati

Two of the most hyped motorcycles of 2020, the Harley-Davidson Pan America and the Husqvarna Norden 901, are finally due for arrival in 2021. While that’s good news for patient fans who want to buy them, Harley and Husqvarna are behind the eight ball within the ADV space because excellent options like the KTM 790 Adventure, KTM 890 Adventure (upon which the 901 is based), and Yamaha Ténéré 700 are already dominating at price points well below what we’ll see from Harley and Huskie. While it may not be fair to compare the Pan America to the KTMs and Yamahas when it’s really meant to compete with the new BMW R 1250 GS, the Norden will almost certainly cost more than the KTM while offering similar performance. I predict the Pan America and Norden 901 will be hard-pressed to prove themselves as they show up late to the hottest party in town.

My long shot prediction is that Ducati gets a new owner in 2021. Did you know that Volkswagen Group owns Ducati, Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini and Porsche, among other brands? VW may be forced to jettison some brands and focus on its core as the full economic effects of the pandemic emerge in 2021. (Lance noted in a previous predictions article that motorcycle sales tanked in 2009, not 2008 when the recession hit, meaning they are probably a lagging indicator.) If either Ducati or VW runs into trouble, the Bologna brand could go up for sale. VW has considered selling off Ducati in the recent past. Harley-Davidson hired Goldman Sachs to help them explore an acquisition and KTM’s Stefan Pierer went on record saying he’d consider buying Ducati, too. Of course, VW decided to keep Ducati back then. Could it be different now? VW paid about $898,793,000 for Ducati in 2011, so the new owner definitely won't be a small player.

Zack Courts: A Versys 400 and turbo everything

My regular ol’ hum-drum prediction is for a Kawasaki Versys 400. I actually feel a little bad for Kawasaki — I don’t think it painted itself into this corner on purpose. The Versys platform was a good home for a Ninja 300 engine, as evidenced by the Versys-X 300, and then Team Green went and outdid itself with the Ninja 400. Now, what seems like a simple plug 'n' play is going to take a new frame and at that point there might as well be new everything, which takes years, not months. All of that means Kawasaki is trapped in a room, being chased around in circles by its own good reputation, with all of us here on the outside unable to accept that the engineers don’t just have some kind of contraption for bottling lightning that they can fire up and use to build another bike. All we want is a little more of a good thing, and the longer we wait the better it will have to be for the motorcycling public to be impressed. Godspeed.

My long shot prediction is the beginning of a new wave of turbo motorcycles. It’s high time. The automotive industry is overflowing with turbo models these days, every manufacturer chasing its ideal balance of sipping fuel at low engine speeds and a kick of power midway through the revs. Kawasaki’s fleet of H2 models has been a really fun novelty in forced induction, and I don’t see why we can’t ride that wave into turbos for the masses. There are probably some good reasons, but bear with me. Does anyone else remember the Suzuki Recursion concept from a number of years ago? It was arguably the last unique or interesting design to come out of Suzuki, and rumors have it that it’s still alive in some form. What a combo that would be, for the crew in Hamamatsu to win the MotoGP World Championship and then drop a mid-sized parallel twin with 100 horsepower and a four-digit price tag. Let’s make our dreams come true at the same time, Suzuki.

Ari Henning: Continued rise of mid-size bikes, Harley's nosedive

From the Kawasaki Ninja 400 and KTM 390 Adventure to the Yamaha Ténéré 700 and new Aprilia RS 660, in the past few years we’ve seen an upwelling of sensible, small- to medium-displacement machines land on dealership floors. I anticipate that trend will continue in 2021, and I hope it keeps working to attract the interest of new riders. We already know Aprilia is planning to build a Tuono and Toureg based on the new 660 platform, so this prediction is a little insider trading. My hope is that other manufacturers will get the message and follow Aprilia’s lead.

Wouldn’t it be great if Yamaha offered a full-faired sport bike based on the MT-07 and sprinkled on some of the leftover suspension and brake parts they have from the discontinued YZF-R6? And Suzuki would have its first hit in years if it would pull its head out of its ass and finally make an SV650R using overstocked GSX-R components.

The writing is on the wall and the process has already begun, so this might not be the “long shot” prediction Lance asked for, but I foresee Harley-Davidson’s dominance in the U.S. motorcycle market taking a nosedive in 2021. Like an engines-on-fire, wings-falling-off kind of nosedive.

Harley-Davidson is already in a tough spot and its prime demographic, Baby Boomers, are really aging out. These guys and gals aren’t Easy Riding with arthritic knees and bad backs, and Harley isn’t doing anything to draw new riders. The Bronx streetfighter was the only model on the horizon with any potential, and that’s been canceled (unless Spurgeon's long shot prediction works out). True, the Pan America is still scheduled for production, but Harley is a novice player among seasoned pros in the adventure segment. Remember when Michael Jordan tried his hand at baseball?

Lance Oliver: A U.S. champion and ZLA team news

I predict a U.S. racer will win a world championship in 2021. As I mentioned in the last HS/LS podcast, I'm a fan of the sport, not a nationalistic fan. But still, I think 2021 will be a very interesting year of world championship road racing in part because three U.S. racers are potentially poised for a breakthrough year: Joe Roberts, moving up to the championship-winning Italtrans team in Moto2 after by far his best year in the class in 2020; five-time MotoAmerica HONOS Superbike champion Cameron Beaubier taking Roberts' old seat at the American Racing Team after a very dominant year at the national level; and Garrett Gerloff, starting his second World Superbike season after overachieving and making the podium in his rookie year. It would be a lot to expect Gerloff to win a title, in particular, but all three have potential.

Now here's where I'm cheating on this prediction. What you're probably forgetting is that Monster Energy Supercross, despite consisting this year of 17 races in seven locations in just five U.S. states, is an FIM world championship. And unless Marvin Musquin wins the 2021 450SX title or Ken Roczen makes a miraculous comeback from injuries and health issues, the champion will almost certainly be a U.S. rider. So even if the three guys in roadracing fall short (the most likely scenario, given their competition), I can still claim I was right.

My long shot prediction: Just imagine it. A year from now, COVID-19 is a blurry and unsettling memory, like a mostly forgotten nightmare. RevZilla's famous holiday activities are once again in-person events so the ZLA video and Common Tread teams plan a reunion. Spurgeon raps his glass of punch with a spoon to get attention and announces he has been promoted to Vice President of Big Ideas, so his calendar is now booked through 2023 and writing articles for Common Tread is henceforth below his pay grade, though he will volunteer to pose for the occasional goofy photo (see above). Ari is explaining to Spenser Robert why he should do more pushups while Spenser is thinking he'll just ride a Honda CRF250L instead. Zack has young Andy cornered and is explaining the advantages of turbocharging, which has caused Andy to daydream of new DIY mods to his fleet of obsolete 600 cc sport bikes. Joe Zito is telling stories about how he modified his hardtail Triumph a 10th time and set a land speed record in some obscure class, while J&P's Patrick Garvin explains the five custom projects he completed during the year (that's actually not a long shot). Brandon Wise is absent because he finally fulfilled his boyhood dream of becoming a stunt rider and is off moonlighting on the set of the next Bond movie. I'm standing quietly in a corner, watching like a proud father, and mentally editing Spurgeon's speech down from 426 words to 52.

And Common Tread readers are still the best audience in the moto-centric cyberworld. Some of that is bound to come true, especially the last one.