World Superbike: Why Bautista's triple may not mean what you think

There's no question Bautista was dominant at Phillip Island in Australia this weekend, winning the Saturday race by more than 14 seconds and Sunday's by more than 12, despite slowing to cruise across the finish line in celebration. He earned the first-ever WSBK triple by also winning Sunday's 10-lap Tissot Superpole Race, the new addition to the schedule this year.

So does that mean it's going to be another blowout in World Superbike and we should just give Bautista the trophy now?

Not so fast

Even a weekend as dominant as Bautista's doesn't guarantee we already know the end of the story. Consider a few facts.

Bautista likes Phillip Island. Defending champion Jonathan Rea, not quite so much. Bautista won by a wide margin, but his total lights-to-checkered-flag time was only a few seconds faster than last year's double winner, Marco Melandri, also on a Ducati. Bautista destroyed his competition with consistency. Being a fraction of a second faster per lap is plenty, if you do it every single lap.

Speaking of Melandri and Ducati, keep in mind that Melandri won both races last year at Phillip Island but ended the year fifth in the championship. Ducati won four of the first six races in 2018, but none after that. Jonathan Rea and his Kawasaki went on to win the title by an astounding 189 points. What's my point? Phillip Island is not often a good indication of how the entire season will play out.

So does this prove MotoGP is vastly superior?

I'm sure some people who like to dismiss World Superbike will say this proves that all the talent is in the top series and WSBK is a bunch of second-rate tossers. After all, the guy who was 12th in the MotoGP season standings in 2018 strolled into World Superbike and beat everyone severely.

True, but a bit misleading.

Last year I asked Toni Elias — who has raced against and beaten everyone from Valentino Rossi to underfunded MotoAmerica privateers working out of a van — to assess the difference between the various roadracing series. He said most people overestimate the difference between the series, at least for the guys at the front. The real difference is not the talent level of the racers winning the titles, but the depth of the field.

If Bautista had finished the 2018 MotoGP season in 12th spot while riding a Repsol Honda and then come to World Superbike to dominate, that would be telling. But instead he went from riding a previous-year Ducati for a relatively weak, private MotoGP team to one of the two strongest factory-backed teams in the WSBK paddock. At the MotoGP race at Phillip Island last year, Bautista replaced Jorge Lorenzo, who was injured, on the factory Ducati team. In that race, on top-tier 2018 equipment, he finished fourth.

Forecast: An interesting year in WSBK

None of the above is intended to diminish Bautista's accomplishments this weekend. He not only soundly beat the guy who has won the last four titles and more Superbike races than anyone in history, but he also totally disappeared from everyone else on a Ducati V4 R, making it clear it was not the new bike that should get all the credit. This weekend, Álvaro Bautista Arce was in a league of his own.

Despite being a blowout, this weekend actually made me more interested in the season to come. Rea has a serious challenge from not just one newcomer, but two, at least. His own teammate showed himself to be a threat in his first time out (and the Yamahas weren't far behind, either).

I think we may just be living in interesting times.