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Nearly two months ago, I wrote about some evidence suggesting that used motorcycle prices had peaked and were now trending downward. I figured it was time to revisit the topic, with the benefit of a little more data, to see if that was true. The answer? The trend appears to have solidified.
My previous story was based on data from National Powersport Auctions, which sells tens of thousands of pre-owned motorcycles and other powersports vehicles at wholesale every year at live and virtual auctions around the country. It compiles information from all those auctions into a monthly report on the trends they're seeing in wholesale pricing, which eventually trickles down to the retail level — meaning us. In my previous story, I noted that the October report showed year-over-year wholesale price declines in every category of motorcycle NPA tracks, ranging from 6% to 16%. Beyond that, I noted that prices had been falling since July in most categories, with just a few exceptions.
So what has happened since? The November and December reports showed declines in every motorcycle category. In November, the declines ranged from 7% for the very broadly defined sport category to 16% for domestic cruisers. In December, prices fell year over year by amounts ranging from 2% for dual-sports to 18% for domestic cruisers.
No class of motorcycle showed price increases, year over year, and NPA said the decline in average wholesale price was the fastest it had seen since the financial crisis of 2008. It appears the data I cited two months ago really did represent a trend, not an aberration.
A change in trend doesn't mean everything is suddenly cheap
For those of you about to type up a surly response citing presistently high prices at your local dealership or stubborn dreamers on Craigslist still asking the original MSRP for a 10-year-old touring bike, let me remind you that a change in trend doesn't mean everything is back to the way in was in the pre-pandemic days. Yes, prices are easing, but they're falling from an unusually high peak caused by a confluence of factors: a shortage of new motorcycles due to COVID-related production interruptions and supply chain disruptions, stimulus checks putting cash in people's pockets, many people taking up off-road riding when other activities ceased during the shutdowns, etc.
Prices are dropping but they are still high. NPA said prices peaked in April of 2022. It's normal for prices to peak before the spring selling season and drop about 15% by the time winter is looming. But this year, the prices for domestic cruisers have fallen almost 30% from the peak. Despite that, overall prices are still about 10% higher than before the pandemic, NPA reports.
What does this mean for you as a consumer? It means that things are not fully back to "normal," in terms of inventories or prices. (Some manufacturers and dealers are reconsidering what is the optimal amount of inventory and will intentionally not return to the way they did business in 2019 and before. Leaner inventories may be here to stay.) But inventory and prices are moving in a direction favorable to the buyer. NPA says dealer inventories are now higher than they have been in a few years so you're more likely to be able to find the motorcycle you want to buy. With increased supply and consumer uneasiness over inflation and a potential recession, price pressures are easing.
"The pandemic price premium has clearly come to an end," said the NPA December report. That doesn't mean we suddenly have a flood of bargains to choose from, but if you are thinking of buying a motorcycle in the near future, once again the trend is your friend.
