Survival odds are improving for nearly everyone on U.S. roads except motorcyclists

That's the conclusion I can't help but draw after looking at a recent report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA recently released its estimate of fatalities for the first half of 2024, and while the numbers are preliminary estimates and only cover half a year, they are strikingly consistent across all categories of road users except motorcyclists. Fatalities are down for just about everyone but us.

Overall, NHTSA estimated that 18,720 people died in motor vehicle crashes during the first half of this year, a 3.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. The estimated rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled also dropped slightly, from 1.21 to 1.17, indicating that the lower number of fatalities was not simply due to people driving less. The roads actually were a tiny bit safer.

Except for motorcyclists.

Motorcyclist fatalities were estimated to be 1% higher than the previous year, so not a shocking number. But what makes that 1% noteworthy is how it stands out. NHTSA slices and dices the fatality stats by who, when, where, and other factors. Here are some of the other subcategories:

• Pedestrians, down 3%
• Bicyclists, down 1%
• Passenger vehicle drivers, down 3%
• Passenger vehicle passengers, down 7%
• Men, down 3%
• Women, down 2%
• At night, down 4%
• On weekends, down 4%
• During out-of-state travel, down 12%
• In speeding-related crashes, down 6%
• In rollover crashes, down 6%
• In single-vehicle crashes, down 1%
• In crashes involving a large truck, down 1%

The list goes on, but you get the idea. Other than motorcyclists, there was only one subcategory where NHTSA said fatalities increased: those over the age of 65, also up 1%.

This data fits with the long-term trend. When I wrote about NHTSA stats earlier this year, I showed the chart below. The trends are small but steady. Over the past 25 years, people in cars, trucks, and other vehicles have made up a decreasing percentage of fatalities while the rest of us, motorcyclists, bicyclists, and pedestrians, have made up a larger percentage.

And if the first-half 2024 stats hold up, it will just be motorcyclists, not even bicyclists and pedestrians.

Part of this, of course, is that modern cars are better at protecting their occupants. While anti-lock brakes and traction control systems increase motorcycle safety, and features such as adaptive cruise control and collision warning systems may have some effect at the margins, those features are mostly limited to more expensive motorcycles. And while they can help prevent a crash, there's not much you can do to make a motorcycle safer once a crash has occurred. 

We love to blame others, such as "cagers" looking at their phones. And while distracted driving is a real issue and drivers often kill us due to inattentional blindness, we are still our own worst enemy. About a quarter of all fatal motorcycle crashes involve alcohol and nearly half are single-vehicle crashes that can't be blamed on a distracted driver.

There's no shocking new revelation here. Just a reminder. Practice good technique and if you don't know if you're practicing good technique, get some training (it's actually fun). Maintain situational awareness at all times. If you can't enjoy a motorcycle ride without drinking, maybe you need a new hobby. And try not to do anything stupid. Because the numbers aren't getting any better.