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Let's break stuff in 2026! Ooh, probably poor prose to start a preview of the Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship, which begins Saturday in Anaheim, California.
In theory, I expect champions, such as Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton, and Jason Anderson to break some records and continue building on recent trends. In reality, however, breaking "stuff" has already dampened one team's plans for the 53rd running of the Supercross series. On Dec. 20, Honda HRC Progressive announced Jett Lawrence, 2024 450SX champion and three-time and defending SuperMotocross World Champion, had surgery on a broken right ankle (talus) and wrist (navicular).
Lawrence, who exited the 2025 SX championship after round four with an ACL injury will, once again, not win the Supercross title. The reported "at least three months" recovery period would put him back on the track at round 10 in Birmingham, Alabama, on March 21, at the earliest.
Not yet vets: First-ever 30+ champ?
With the 22-year-old Australian phenom out of title contention, the opportunity for a unique first in the sport is now a bit more likely. Of the 52 #1 plates handed out in Supercross history, none have ever gone to a rider aged 30 or older, an age in motocross commonly associated with "vet" riders. Generations are on a collision course at the moment.
In 2023, a 30-year-old Tomac had a healthy points lead when his Achilles tendon ruptured on lap four (while leading!) of the penultimate round of the series. In 2026, defending champion Cooper Webb will become just the second 30-year-old in sport history to line up with the #1 plate.
If the sport is ever going to see a (Scrabble-word-nerd alert) tricenarian win the 450SX crown, 2026 could be the last best shot. Here's why: Of the top 20 riders from the 2025 points standings, 14 enter the new season aged 30+ and a 15th (two-time race winner Aaron Plessinger) will be 30 the morning after round three.
This topic was part of the Supercross preview I wrote 10 years ago for Common Tread. Back then just four riders (Mike LaRocco, Chad Reed, John Dowd, and Kevin Windham) had won races after turning 30. That number is now up to 11 unique names and Tomac leads them all with nine wins in his 30s.
Tomac is already second on the all-time overall 450SX wins list (53, 19 wins behind Jeremy McGrath) and, if he wins at any point in 2026, the 33-year-old Coloradan would be the second-oldest winner ever. He'd have to win in 2027 to usurp Justin Brayton, who won the 2018 Daytona Supercross (over Tomac!) just days before his 34th birthday.
Supercross winners have trended older as career length has risen among top riders. In the 10 seasons run between 2010 to 2019, 72 race winners were aged 25+ (42.3%). Since 2020, 102 Supercross races have been run (six seasons) and 80 of them were won by riders 25 and up (78.4%) That's a remarkable shift from 2000 to 2009 when more than two-thirds of the races were won by riders under 25. A trend shift to younger winners definitely won't happen in 2026 because there might not be a single rider under the age of 25 on the 450SX starting line at Anaheim, but it could happen in 2027 and beyond.
Jett Lawrence doesn’t turn 25 until August 2028 and Haiden Deegan, who celebrates his 20th birthday this Saturday, will line up for his first 450SX season one year from now. Another young talent to consider is 18-year-old New Zealander Cole Davies, who impressed in 2025 with two 250SX West wins. No timeline has been drawn for Davies to move to the 450 division but judging by his rookie-year performance, 2028 looks promising.
More riders doing more winning: Record number of winners?
Eight unique winners; there was so much hope for tying that record last season. When Aaron Plessinger won the (very) muddy Foxborough Supercross, he became the seventh different 450SX winner of the season, a benchmark not seen since 1997. Five rounds remained but, unfortunately, the talent pool of potential winners was depleted by injuries and illnesses. Just seven riders started all 17 rounds.
The unique winner count has trended higher for three straight seasons now (five in 2023; six in 2024; seven in 2025). The most ever in a single season was eight winners (1985) in a tight 11-round schedule. All eight of those riders are now in the AMA Motorcycle Hall of Fame.
Helping to build this parity is two consecutive years of five different riders winning within the first six rounds. Supercross hasn't seen just four winners since 2018 and 2016.
Pulling out to observe all divisions (450SX and 250SX East and West), 19 different riders won the 34 overalls in the 2025 season, smashing the previous record of 16 set one year earlier. The benchmark before that was 14, set four times.
Manufacturer musical chairs: Winning on four brands?
Three former 450SX champions (Tomac, Sexton, and Anderson) will all line up with new teams and, unquestionably, Tomac's move piques the most interest. For the first time in his professional career (which began in May, 2010), he's on a steel-framed motorcycle, specifically, a Red Bull KTM Factory Racing 450 SX-F.
In an early December roundtable discussion that included his former Kawasaki teammate Adam Cianciarulo and five-time champion Ricky Carmichael, Tomac was asked about power. Tomac is known for requesting more from his engine builders. With KTM, Tomac said he isn't exactly trying to "de-tune" the motor, but he is asking for reductions.
"Dude, it's a rocket ship," he said to the group with a laugh. "And I ain't blowing smoke, it's… we're working on something that's less than my current spec because it barks!"
If Tomac wins on the KTM, he'd be just the second rider to win a Supercross overall on four different brands (first was Chad Reed). He'd also extend his own record to 12 straight seasons with at least one victory.
Chase Sexton is Monster Energy Kawasaki's hope for a first title since 2020 and their first race win since 2022, the brand's longest premier-class drought in over 40 years. The team should be more than hopeful because in 2025 Sexton had the most of (almost) everything:
- Wins (7)
- Fastest Qualifiers (9)
- Laps led (148) and most races led (12)
- Most fastest lap of the finals (7)
- Second most podium finishes (12)
Despite his worst races being a pair of sixths, he lost the championship to an even more consistent Cooper Webb by two points. But all of the above is why Sexton leads the Fast Power Index (FPI), a power ranking tool designed by We Went Fast.
"I still believe I haven't reached the ceiling for me," he said in early December. "I still have a lot more to show and that's what keeps me going."
Jason Anderson, who won the 2018 450SX championship with Husqvarna, hasn't won a race in Monster Energy Supercross since May, 2022. The 32-year-old from New Mexico has slid over to the Twisted Tea Suzuki Presented by Progressive Insurance RM-Z450 and he's already warmed up heading into Anaheim; Anderson won the recently concluded 2025 FIM SX1 World Supercross Championship.
Another former champion — a four-time World Motocross champ — Jorge Prado returns for a second shot at succeeding in Supercross. The Spaniard had an acrimonious split with Kawasaki at the end of Pro Motocross in 2025 and he will race for KTM as Tomac's teammate. Prado won two MX2 championships with KTM (2018 and 2019) and two MXGP titles with GASGAS, which is part of the KTM conglomerate. Prado led one lap at the 2025 Anaheim opener but lost 13 positions and finished 14th. He suffered a shoulder injury during qualifying at round three.
Roczen rocks at Anaheim, but can he stay healthy?
We can’t end this without mentioning Progressive Insurance Cycle Gear Suzuki's Ken Roczen. Roczen has won at least one 450SX final every year for the last six years. The downside is that he's only finished three of those six seasons. Kenny has a history of starting strong, evidenced by his five Anaheim Supercross wins (four of them at the opening round) but he's only lined up for all 17 races on the SX schedule six times since he moved to the premier class in 2014.
The fan favorite could move into the top 10 for most premier class starts all-time. He's 11 behind Jeremy McGrath (173), a monumental feat on its own, considering Roczen's career nearly ended in 2017 when he suffered a devastating arm injury while leading at… Anaheim.
How to watch Supercross
One last change that's a huge win for Eastern time zone TV viewers is that the first gate drop will be no later than 7 p.m. Eastern for every round, including the West Coast events. Select Supercross races will be broadcast on NBC and all Supercross rounds can be seen on Peacock, NBC's streaming service. See the broadcast schedule here. Another option is the SMX Video Pass, which includes coverage of not just Supercross but also all 28 rounds of the SuperMotocross season, including the Playoffs, plus bonus features for $159.99 for the year, available in English, Spanish, and French.
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