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Three different riders won the Monster Energy Supercross title from 2017 through 2019. None of them were the rider who was supposed to win.
In that same time span, Eli Tomac seemed to win everything: three Lucas Oil Pro Motocross titles, $1 million at the Monster Energy Cup and 23 Supercross main events. That slice of his professional career alone is worthy of a future Motorcycle Hall of Fame nod. But some would argue he’s won nothing at the same time, because he never won the Supercross title.
Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Tomac enters his seventh full Supercross season in the premier 450 class when the gate drops Saturday in Anaheim, California. No rider in the history of championship-era Supercross racing (since 1974) has won his first title after trying for more than six seasons. Tomac already owns the record for most main events won without a championship. His 27 wins, which he compiled within four years and four months of his first victory in 2015 puts him eighth on the all-time win list. He’s tied with three-time champion Bob Hannah. Every other rider in the top 10 of all-time wins has at least two championships. Tomac has zero.
Editor's note: Much of this article is based on analysis by Clinton Fowler. If you love to geek out on Supercross analytics, follow him on Instagram at @3lapsdown.
Of riders with at least 27 wins, Tomac went from victory number one to 27 faster than Chad Reed, Ryan Dungey, Rick Johnson and Bob Hannah. His lack of a championship with so many victories defies both logic and statistics. I’m not a sports psychologist, but I can easily point out what I see and believe is the problem.
The problem is the month of January
Tomac has had only one good January in six full seasons in the 450 class. Even in the final year of racing the 250 West SX division he went first-first-first-DNF and missed winning that title by two points.
Tomac’s best January came in 2019. By "best" I only mean that his average finish for the month (3.5) came in slightly better than the eventual champion, KTM’s Cooper Webb (4.25). Current NBC Sports analyst and five-time champion Ricky Carmichael likes to say "You can’t win the title at the opening round but you can definitely lose it." For Tomac, it’s not just the opening round; it’s the entire month of January that's crushing his chances of winning a Supercross title.
He finally showed promise in 2019 by finishing in the top five at every race in the month, the first time in his career he’s achieved that. And he did it despite a back injury he suffered at home in the month of December, which he avoided discussing until the very end of the month when he felt close to 100 percent.
How did Webb beat Tomac in 2019?
So how, despite the best January of his career, did he still come up 18 points short of Cooper Webb in 2019? Because the average finish in January was the only thing he won last season. Webb won more races (seven) than Tomac (six), took eight holeshots to Tomac’s two and had a better average first lap finishing position (5.0 to Tomac’s 6.3). They tied in overall laps led (128) but Webb led laps at 14 rounds versus Tomac’s 12. Webb also moved forward positions in 16 of the 17 rounds whereas Tomac only did that in 14 races.
Tomac also suffered a brutal momentum shift at round seven in Arlington, Texas. His worst finish of the year came after leading the first seven laps. While Tomac crashed and then slid back to finish 12th, Webb made a last-corner pass to win in a photo finish. Webb's 0.028-second margin over Ken Roczen by was the closest recorded finish in the sport’s history. Coming into Arlington, first and fourth place in the championship were separated by two points. Leaving Arlington, Webb took over the points lead and never let it go.
Who are the challengers in 2020?
The 2020 season, like every season before it, is full of potential winners. But, like every season before it, only four or five riders will score victories. Unfortunately, Marvin Musquin, who won eight races over the past three seasons, will miss 2020 because of a knee injury. And Joey Savatgy, who spent 2019 as Tomac’s teammate at Kawasaki, will miss the start of the season due to an ankle injury. Of the four rookies in 2019, Savatgy finished the highest in points (eighth) but got dropped from Kawasaki in favor of another rookie, Adam Cianciarulo.
The worst possible scenario for Tomac wouldn’t be failing to win the championship for the seventh year in a row; it would be getting beaten by his 23-year-old teammate who has been marinating in the 250 class since the summer of 2013, winning a lot of races but also healing from several shoulder and knee injuries. Cianciarulo won the very first Supercross race he entered (February 15, 2014). He finished first-second-first-second-first in his first five races before his left shoulder popped out in Toronto and he spent two months off the bike.
Rookie winners in the 450 class aren’t a given but they’re not uncommon. Justin Barcia did it in 2013, Trey Canard in 2011, Dungey in 2010, Ryan Villopoto in 2009. Only two rookies, however, have won a championship: Dungey in 2010 and Jeremy McGrath in 1993. If Cianciarulo can withstand the long grind of the 450 division (17 races in 18 weekends) and remain healthy, he could prove to be the most formidable teammate Tomac has ever faced.
Tomac is now 27, another factor working against him. The oldest first-time champion in Supercross history was Pierre Karsmakers. The Dutchman was also 27 when he won the two-race “Yamaha Super Series” in March 1974, the very first championship. The oldest first-time champ since then was Jeff Emig in 1997 (26 years, five months). If Eli’s going to get it done, it had better come soon.
Tomac said on the “Whiskey Throttle Show” that he can’t see himself racing beyond 30. “I really want a Supercross title," he said. "I feel like that’s what I’m missing and I am missing it. It drives me nuts because I was so close.”
And if Tomac didn’t already have enough responsibility and pressure, he’s going to be a father to a baby girl due in May. But you won’t hear about that from him. Tomac stays holed up at his southwestern Colorado home as much as possible and fiercely guards his private life. In the final four months of 2019, he made exactly four social media posts (one to Facebook, three to Instagram and zero to Twitter) that were all forced or promotional. His social absence is unheard of in 2020, considering riders are contractually obligated by sponsors to post photos and updates.
Selfies, social media, babies and championships should be a distant worry right now for Tomac, though. He needs to get through January first. But don’t put too much importance on Anaheim One. The winner of the opening round hasn’t gone on to win the championship since 2012. Historically, the winner of round one wins the championship only 39 percent of the time.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
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